WNBA finals predictions: Will the New York Liberty or Minnesota Lynx win? (2024)

The stage is finally set for the WNBA Finals. The number one-seeded New York Liberty is set to face off against the number two-seed Commissioner's Cup champion Minnesota Lynx. New York has been a dominant team all season losing only eight games in the season and swiftly wrapping up their playoff series with the Atlanta Dream and the former champion Las Vegas Aces.

But the matchup isn't one-sided. The Lynx have been equally as good with only 10 losses in the regular season while quickly taking down Phoenix and outdueling the fearsome Connecticut Sun in a tough 5 game series.

Both teams are led by former UConn standouts, Breanna Stewart and Napheesa Collier, guiding the Liberty and Lynx, respectively. The pair won a national championship together in 2015-2016 and, more recently, earned a gold medal in the 2024 Paris Olympics. In a battle of the besties and the best offensive and defensive squads in the league, who will come out as the 2024 WNBA champion?

New York Liberty

The New York Liberty team has gotten its revenge after beating two-time champion Las Vegas Aces, and now they're out for the first title in franchise history. New York has been an efficient machine all year with top-tier players in all positions.

Sabrina Ionescu is one of the best guards in the league with a deadly three-ball and crafty passing game. The standout rookie Leonie Fiebich has been elevated to the starting lineup in the playoffs and has flourished in the role of a big-time playmaker. Jonquel Jones is one of the most effective scorers at the rim with an equally effective three-point shot. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton takes on the opposing team's best scorer each night while being a dynamic cutting and scoring threat. Breanna Stewart, the 2023 MVP, is one of the most versatile players to play the game and who has been methodical from midrange this season and is the team's leading scorer.

The Seafoam squad was second in the league in points-per-game and rebounding, meaning that, beyond scoring, they're able to control the game via the boards. Rebounding will be crucial in the series as it is the one metric where the Liberty fully outclasses the Lynx thanks to Stewart and Jones down low, although they will still have their hands full with Napheesa Collier and Alanna Smith on the other end.

New York also knocked down the most three-pointers in the league and is not afraid to let them fly, especially Ionescu who was 5th in the league in threes made on the season despite a down year by her standards. Jones and Fiebich are also willing shooters from deep allowing Stewart to operate with surgical precision in the midrange with such a balanced offense it may be the key to throwing off Minnesota's staunch defense.

Minnesota Lynx

Minnesota is a storied franchise with four WNBA titles, and the club is on the way to its seventh WNBA Finals appearance and first since 2017 when Maya Moore led the club to its fourth title. It looks like time is repeating itself because the team is being led by another UConn legend who also hails from Jefferson City, Missouri.

Napheesa Collier is the 2024 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year and runner-up in MVP voting after an astounding season. Collier carried that season over into the playoffs and in the series-sealing game against the Connecticut Sun became the first player in WNBA history to notch 25+ points and 10+ rebounds in three consecutive games.

Minnesota also has an impressive starting lineup alongside Collier. All-Star Kayla McBride is a knockdown shooter from deep, hoisting a high volume and hitting them at a 41 percent clip and broke franchise legend Katie Smith's three-point record of 88 threes in a season with 105. Courtney Williams is a midrange maestro who became a solid facilitator, especially in actions with Napheesa Collier. Australian defender Alanna Smith is a ferocious shot blocker that can pass and space the floor. Canada's Bridget Carleton finished third in Most Improved Player voting this season blossoming from 3 points a game in limited minutes to a vital rotation piece as a defender and net-torching shooter at 44 percent from behind the arc.

While New York may have made the most threes in the WNBA, the Lynx were only 25 total threes behind them and shot them at a slightly better clip at 38 percent compared to the Liberty's 35 percent. Minnesota is by far the most adept team in the league at moving the ball and plays a team game focused on finding the right shot with the ball zipping around constantly to find the open shooter. However, shooters have a tough time against the Lynx since they have the fastest hands in the league, constantly forcing teams into turnovers.

WNBA Finals Key Matchups:

Breanna Stewart and Napheesa Collier
The cofounders of the upcoming 3-on-3 Unrivaled league featuring 30 of the WNBA's best players are the star matchup on the court. The former UConn teammates are both leading the way for their teams in scoring with a multitude of ways to get the ball in the hoop. Collier is having a monstrous postseason run averaging 27.1 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 3.9 throughout the run all while playing the shutdown defense that got her the DPOY award. Stewart, the 2023 MVP, has had an admirable run as well with 20 points-8.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists. Whether either of the superstar players will be able to slow down the other enough for the team to get a win is the key question of the series.

Sabrina Ionescu and Kayla McBride
Ionescu and McBride are two of the league's most prolific shooters with Ionescu knocking down two more threes than McBride during the regular season but needing 63 more attempts. However, Ionescu seems to be revitalized in the postseason, thanks to a handshake from Spike Lee. Ionescu has been lighting up the playoffs making 49 percent of her threes. McBride hopes to get back to her regular season self after being hounded by the Connecticut Sun as she was held to 33 percent during the run so far. This battle of shooters could turn the tide for either team.

WNBA Finals Prediction:

In the Finals series between the top two teams in the league, the result could truly be a toss-up. Both teams are excellent offensively and defensively with New York having an offensive edge and Minnesota's defense a bit sharper. This matchup will come down to the accuracy from deep and slowing down their high-scoring opponents.

Minnesota in 5.

WNBA finals predictions: Will the New York Liberty or Minnesota Lynx win? (2024)

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